State Weather Breakdowns

When El Niño is present, the state usually doesn’t have to worry about moisture. The southern branch of the jet stream is active, and that usually means a stormtrack moving across the state. There have been exceptions in the past, and there is the occasional drier than average signal during the winter in some of the modeling. Is that a big reason for caution? Not necessarily, because I think it would be hard to string two intervals together that would end up drier than average for any region of the state. Right now, this El Niño is not reminiscent of the past strong events. By that I mean the ocean and atmosphere aren’t working together quite as well as the stronger events of the past. We also have as strongly negative PDO… For those reasons, I think this El Niño event will fade pretty quickly by late winter and early spring. Beyond that, I think we will eventually revert back to La Niña. This could spell a much better monsoon season, before things dry out in the fall and winter of 2024.

When El Niño is present, the southern tier of the state is most favored for wetter than average conditions. However, with the exception of regions 1,2,3, and far northern regions 4 and 5 there really isn’t a glaring dry signal for most of the state. Even those northern regions are somewhat hit and miss, as the bulk of the dry signal is centered farther north in the Pacific Northwest. Right now, this ElNiño is not reminiscent of the past strong events. By that I mean the ocean and atmosphere aren’t working together quite as well as the stronger events of the past. We also have a strongly negative PDO…For those reasons, I think this El Niño event will fade pretty quickly by late winter and early spring. Beyond that, I think we will eventually revert back to La Niña. This could spell drier than average conditions for the latter part of 2024.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean above average moisture for some areas, and below average moisture for others. As of now, the driest signal in the models favors the northern 2/3 of region 2, and the wettest signal favors region 5 and all of region 1. Regions 3 and 4 are more measured with the model response indicating no real tip toward wetter or drier. Again, this is for the first half of the year… With El Niño likely going away pretty by late spring, we could very well revert back to La Niña conditions during the back half of 2024. While it is tough to say how fast it will return, I am more concerned about fall, and winter for dryness. That being said, the monsoon should perform better in 2024, especially across the western half of the state. Farther east, if La Niña takes hold sooner, it would likely make for adrier late summer. That trend would continue into fall and winter too…Bottom-line, I think a lot of us will see a different weather pattern for the back half of the year, versus the front half…

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean below average moisture for possibly the first half of 2024. The dry signal is pretty stout in the models and in the analogs. Typically, the chimney of Idaho ends up with the driest anomalies. Areas farther southeast are likely to do better…especially, the southern regions 5 through 10.After El Niño disappears in the spring, we will likely start to see La Niña come back into play. This may mean some dryness early in the summer, with better moisture returning from July through the rest of the year.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean below average moisture for possibly the first half of 2024, for the west and northwest parts of the state. Farther south and east, the dry signal is far less. In fact, a wet signal even shows up in the spring. This could be due to the El Niño going away, but there may still be warmer than average water in the ENSO regions. This would be similar to what we had last spring, when some good moisture was present.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean above average moisture for some areas, without a real stout dry signal anywhere.The driest signal, if there is one, would likely favor far north and northwest regions 1 and 2. Otherwise, models and analogs really do not suggest the state having a big dryness issue through the first half of 2024. Beyond that, having coverage isn’t a bad idea…especially, for far west/southwest part of the state. With El Niño likely going away pretty by late spring, we could very well revert back to La Niña conditions during the back half of 2024. While it is tough to say how fast it will return, I am more concerned about fall, and winter for dryness for regions 1 and 7. That being said, the monsoon should perform better in 2024, especially across the western half of the state.

When El Niño is present, the southern tier of the state is most favored for wetter than average conditions. While regions 1 and 2 may not necessarily be drier than average, these two regions do have the best chance through the first part of the year. Again, tough to string two months together that look outright drier than average, for winter and spring. Right now, this El Niño is not reminiscent of the past strong events. By that I mean the ocean and atmosphere aren’t working together quite as well as the stronger events of the past. We also have as strongly negative PDO… For those reasons, I think this El Niño event will fade pretty quickly by late winter and early spring. Beyond that, I think we will eventually revert back to La Niña. This could spell drier than average conditions for the latter part of 2024.

When El Niño is present, most of the state will see a wetter than average winter and spring. Right now, this El Niño is not reminiscent of the past strong events. By that I mean the ocean and atmosphere aren’t working together quite as well as the stronger events of the past. We also have a strongly negative PDO… For those reasons, I think this El Niño event will fade pretty quickly by late winter and early spring. Does that mean we revert back to much drier conditions for the heart of spring? I doubt it… I think we will still be benefitting from the El Niño through the first half of the 2024. Beyond that,I think we will eventually revert back to La Niña. This could spell drier than average conditions for the second half of the year.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean below average moisture for some areas, during the first half of 2024…especially, for the west and northwest parts of the state. Farther south and east, the dry signal is less. In fact, a wet signal even shows up in the spring. This could be due to the El Niño going away, but there may still be warmer than average water in the ENSO regions. All this being said, the dry signal within the models and in the analogs are not terribly strong. Still, I think it is prudent to cover yourself early in 2024…

When El Niño is present, most of the state tends to see a wetter than average winter and spring. Right now, this El Niño is not reminiscent of the past strong events. By that I mean the ocean and atmosphere aren’t working together quite as well as the stronger events of the past. We also have a strongly negative PDO… For those reasons, I think this El Niño event will fade pretty quickly by late winter and early spring. Does that mean we revert back to much drier conditions for the heart of spring? I doubt it… I think we will still be benefitting from the El Niño through the first half of the 2024. Beyond that, I think we will eventually revert back to La Niña. This could spell drier than average conditions for the second half of the year.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean below average moisture for possibly the first half of 2024. The dry signal ispretty stout in the models and in the analogs. Typically, the coastal areas end up with the driest anomalies. However, I would be surprised if any particular region of the state ended up with above average moisture, during the first half of the year. Could there be a wet period or two? Sure… But the overall flavor is for drier than average to be the rule early on. Beyond that, it is possible La Niña returns to the picture later in 2024. This could mean a boost in precipitation potential for the back half of the year, especially for the fall and winter season.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean below average moisture for some areas, during the first half of 2024…especially, for the far western and northern parts of the state. Farther south and east, the dry signal is less. In fact, a wet signal even shows up in the spring. This could be due to the El Niño going away, but there may still be warmer than average water in the ENSO regions.All this being said, the dry signal within the models and in the analogs are not terribly strong. Still, I think it is prudent to cover yourself early in 2024…

When El Niño is present, most of Texas will see a wetter than average winter and spring. Right now, this El Niño is not reminiscent of the past strong events. By that I mean the ocean and atmosphere aren’t working together quite as well as the stronger events of the past. We also have a strongly negative PDO… For those reasons, I think this ElNiño event will fade pretty quickly by late winter and early spring.Does that mean we revert back to much drier conditions for the heart of spring? I doubt it… I think we will still be benefitting from the El Niño through the first half of the 2024. Beyond that, I think we will eventually revert back to La Niña. This could spell drier than average conditions for the second half of the year.

When El Niño is present, the MOST of the state usually doesn’t have to worry about moisture. The southern branch of the jet stream is active, and that usually means a storm track moving over or to the south of the state. There have been exceptions in the past, and there is the occasional drier than average signal during the winter in some of the modeling. Is that a big reason for caution? Not necessarily, because I think it would be hard to string two intervals together that would end up drier than average for any region of the state. Historically speaking, the southern half of the state is wetter than the northern half with an El Niño. Right now, this El Niño is not reminiscent of the past strong events. By that I mean the ocean and atmosphere aren’t working together quite as well as the stronger events of the past. We also have a strongly negative PDO… For those reasons, I think this El Niño event will fade pretty quickly by late winter and early spring. Beyond that, I think we will eventually revert back to La Niña. This could spell a much better monsoon season, before things (especially in the southern half of the state) dry out in the fall and winter of 2024.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. This could mean below average moisture for possibly the first half of 2024. The dry signal is pretty stout in the models and in the analogs. Typically, the coastal areas end up with the driest anomalies. However, I would be surprised if any particular region of the state ended up with above average moisture, during the first half of the year. Could there be a wet period or two? Sure… But the overall flavor is for drier than average to be the rule early on. Beyond that, it is possible La Niña returns to the picture later in 2024. This could mean a boost in precipitation potential for the back half of the year, especially for the fall and winter season.

El Niño will likely be the main driver for the first part of 2024. Models and analogs both suggest that the signal from this episode may not completely disappear until April or May. While the dry signal is not stout for most of the state, it is certainly higher for regions 1,2, and 3, during the first three to four months of the year. El Niño will likely leave this spring, and that may allow for a brief period of “normal”, before La Niña develops. After that, it is possible that the southeast part of the state starts to dry out and the west/northwest start to moisten up…