La Niña Updated Data

Obviously, most of us want La Niña to go away. I have some updated data on when that may happen... While it isn't much different than what I've told you before, I still wanted to update you. The following graphs are a November through March forecast from the various models. As you can see, they start out firmly in La Niña territory. But by February and March, each model gets rid of La Niña.

November 2022 forecast graph for La Niña
December 2022 forecast graph for La Niña
January 2023 forecast graph for La Niña
February 2023 forecast graph for La Niña
March 2023 forecast graph for La Niña

Also...the BOM (the Bureau of Meteorology) which is the Australian Model tips us toward weakly warm by March. In general, I would expect more models to continue to do this by the middle to end of next year. 

The graphic below is also from the Climate Prediction Center...

Early-October 2022 CPC Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts graph

You can see the probabilities of La Niña are still above 50% for the January/February/March timeframe. After that, the probabilities for neutral conditions dominate through most of spring and early summer. By May/June/July, probabilities for El Niño increase to about 25%. Again, it isn't a slam dunk that we are even close to El Niño conditions by that time. It is just a trend that I think is worth noting...

As I have said many times, we need a few things to happen to lessen the drought signal in The West and Southern/Western Plains...

  1. La Niña needs to go away
  2. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation needs to warm
  3. MJO needs to frequently cycle to increase weather pattern variability

If we can accomplish those things, a lot of us will be in much better shape. If nothing else, getting La Niña to go away BEFORE spring will enhance the possibility of seeing weather variability during the seasonal change. At this point, I'd settle for that...

Brian Bledsoe

Brian grew up on a ranch in Colorado and was inspired to pursue weather because of the impact it has on his family's way of life. His 20+ years of broadcasting experience, paired with his roots on a ranch, make Brian a great partner to have as you plan for the future.

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