El Nino Update: July - November

Just a short update on the current status, and where we are likely heading...

Here is a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies.

Very warm water just off the west coast of South America, and that warmer than average water extends westward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Overall, the Pacific Ocean continues to warm, despite a few spots that are currently cooler than average.

All of the forecast models continue to develop this episode further, during the next several months. The graphics below show the various models and their forecasts...

The BOM (Australian model) is the most aggressive with this event, and actually shows a record El Niño occurring. Even if that is overblown, the other models have a pretty strong event materializing by the fall. You've heard me say many times, I don't like strong El Niño events. I would much rather have a weaker event, as it keeps the overall pattern much more variable, and doesn't lock us into weather regimes. Also, I am not sure what type of El Niño we may have... Yes, there is more than one type of El Niño. See the graphic below...

The top row shows where the warmest water sets up...the second row shows the upper level weather pattern that prevails with each from December through February...the third row shows the prevailing temperature anomalies with each type from December through February. You can see that there are differences. It will be very important to determine what type of event we will end up having, as this continues to evolve. Should know about that in the coming months, but as of right now, this is showing up as a traditional event. Will it evolve to a different type? Possibly...but far too early to tell 100%.

At any rate, getting some questions about what late summer and fall was going to look like, so wanted to show you that it is still a bit early to tell. If you have questions, please let me know...


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